[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090601
SWODY1
SPC AC 090559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 15 NNE VCT
15 NNE GLS ...CONT... 30 SSW CTY 30 NE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ANJ 60 NNW EAU
20 NNW BKX 25 SSW ANW 15 N CAO 4CR 15 NNW ELP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM
30 E LAS 55 NNW P38 65 SE U31 40 SE NFL RNO 35 SSW SVE 55 NW SVE 60
ESE 4LW 10 NE BOI 40 ENE BKE 80 SSW PDT 55 NE MFR 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DBQ 10 NE MMO
45 NNE LAF 30 SW FDY 15 NNW UNI 30 ESE JKL 30 W CSV 50 NE MKL 55 NW
POF 25 WSW COU 10 SSE IRK 30 NE OTM 25 SSE DBQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...4-CORNERS REGION...

LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR SFO...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SWD OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST.  THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE INLAND DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS UT.  OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS...DEEP LAYER TRAJECTORIES HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE ACROSS NRN MEXICO...INTO THE DESERT SW AND
4-CORNERS REGION.  00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUS AND PHX INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE STEADILY INCREASED...WITH VALUES WELL
IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. IT APPEARS SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY PLUME BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE TYPICAL STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.  12Z SOUNDINGS SHOULD PROVE
HELPFUL IN THIS DECISION PROCESS.  GREATEST SEVERE RISKS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN LESS VEERING
ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WRN ND
INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THURSDAY
EVENING EXHIBITED A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH QUITE WARM SFC
TEMPERATURES.  THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY NOT PROVE THAT SIGNIFICANT WITH LEE CYCLONE OVER MT.  IT APPEARS
SFC HEATING WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BLACK HILLS POSSIBLY SERVING AS AN INITIATING
ZONE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.  EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE OF THIS
HIGH BASED ACTIVITY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

DOWNSTREAM...STRENGTHENING CAP BUT INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN/ARROWHEAD OF MN.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...CAP WILL PROVE STRONGER
THAN FORECAST THUS FORCING PARCEL LIFT TO SUCH A LEVEL THAT
INSTABILITY WILL PROVE LACKING FOR ANY MEANINGFUL STORMS SOUTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER.

..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.