[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 082001
SWODY1
SPC AC 081959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
LWD 15 WNW DSM 25 NNE DSM 45 SSW ALO 15 NW CID 15 NE MLI 10 SE CMI
30 SSE MTO 10 NNW SLO 35 NNE COU 25 SW P35 35 NW LWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE RRT 40 S DLH
15 W AUW 25 SW MKG MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 35 NE HOP 35 ESE
POF 40 ESE SGF 35 SSW OJC 20 ENE MHK 40 SSW EAR 20 SSW MCK 30 N LAA
15 E CAO 65 SW TCC 25 ESE TCS 30 SSW DMN ...CONT... 60 SW GBN 10 WSW
IGM 35 ENE P38 25 NE DPG 40 SE MLD 45 N BPI 15 NNE WRL 40 SSE BIL 40
ESE LVM 35 S 27U 90 SSE BNO 35 ESE TVL 65 SSE TVL 45 E SAC SAC 40 W
SAC 20 NW SFO ...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 25 NNW BKE 40 SW MSO 50 SW HVR
65 N OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 65 WSW MIA
35 S AGR 25 NE GNV 35 NW SSI 35 E SAV ...CONT... 65 W COT GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS
VLY...

...MID MS VLY...
LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO /HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS AOA 70 KTS/ APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES SEWD AROUND 40 KTS.  MESOANALYSIS
PLACES A BOUNDARY SEWD FROM MCV OVER POWESHIEK COUNTY IA INTO CNTRL
IL.  LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTN TO
THE S OF THE FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  GIVEN
THAT THE LLJ/INSTABILITY AXES HAVE BEEN LARGELY POSITIONED JUST
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FORWARD PROPAGATION HAS BEEN DOMINATE WITH
SEVERE WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.  IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SE TO
CARRY A SEVERE THREAT. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REPOSITION WWD OVER
THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN.  BUT...GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE MCV AND
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM...A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL
THREAT MIGHT EXTEND WELL SE INTO PARTS OF NERN MO AND CNTRL IL
THROUGH THE EVENING.  

...CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A BROAD PLUME OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARCING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS.  ISOLD HIGH-BASED TSTMS HAVE BRIEFLY ROOTED INTO THE
MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG/ ACROSS NWRN
NEB.  THOUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGING/WARMING ARE TAKING PLACE THIS AFTN
ACROSS THE PLAINS...OTHER TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM THE HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTION FROM SRN SD INTO NERN CO ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH.  HERE...
CONSIDERABLE HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY ERASE THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS
OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS GIVEN A STORM.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
ISOLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.

LATER TONIGHT...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME EVOLVING ACROSS
THE ERN DAKS AND NWRN MN.  HERE...BANDS OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.  STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 09/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.