[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081622
SWODY1
SPC AC 081620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
SUX 25 WNW MCW 30 ENE MCW 45 NNW DBQ 45 NW LAF 25 S MTO 35 NW ALN 35
WSW P35 35 ESE OMA 40 E SUX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW GBN 10 WSW IGM
35 ENE P38 25 NE DPG 40 SE MLD 45 N BPI 15 NNE WRL 40 SSE BIL 40 ESE
LVM 35 S 27U 90 SSE BNO 40 ESE TVL 35 S TVL 55 S EKA ...CONT... 20
NNW 4BK 25 NNW BKE 40 SW MSO 50 SW HVR 65 N OLF ...CONT... 30 ESE
RRT 40 S DLH 15 W AUW 25 SW MKG MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 35 NE
HOP 35 ESE POF 40 ESE SGF 35 SSW OJC 20 ENE MHK 40 SSW EAR 20 SSW
MCK 30 N LAA 15 E CAO 65 SW TCC 25 ESE TCS 30 SSW DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT GLS
...CONT... 15 SW CTY 35 SE VLD 40 NE AYS 35 E SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA INTO NERN MO/CENTRAL
IL...

...IA INTO NERN MO/IL...
LINEAR MCS NOW OVER NWRN IA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
IA THIS AFTERNOON /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2163/...AND MAY BE SUSTAINED
INTO CENTRAL IL/NERN MO LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SWRN MN THIS MORNING. 
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS WWD FROM LAKE ERIE TO A
LOW CENTER OVER ERN IL AND THEN NWWD INTO NWRN IA LATE THIS MORNING.
 THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ABOVE MENTIONED MCS TODAY.  AIR MASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINAL TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATTM AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...PARTLY DUE TO
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION.  HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES
HEAT THROUGH THE 70S/LOWER 80S WITHIN WARM SECTOR...CAPPING WILL
ERODE AND STORMS SHOULD ROOT INTO A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEW POINTS.  THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BY THE MID AFTERNOON AND
SYSTEM MAY TURN MORE SEWD AND STRADDLE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. 
MODELS FORECAST WSWLY LLJ WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA
TODAY...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BACK-BUILD INTO
CENTRAL/ERN IA IN WAKE OF LEADING ACTIVITY.  SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
SUSTAIN ORGANIZED LINE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS ATOP THE COLD POOL AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP LATER TODAY.  ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH LACK OF LLJ INTO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES.

...NRN PLAINS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WRN SD TODAY...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE ND-SD BORDER AND A LEE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THESE FEATURES...REGION
WILL REMAIN IN A SUBSIDENT REGIME AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. 
THEREFORE...ANY ENSUING DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED
...THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. 
AFTER DARK...SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD AND MAY
SUPPORT INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER ERN ND/FAR NWRN MN
LATER TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.