[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081243
SWODY1
SPC AC 081242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
FSD 10 NNE ATY RWF 30 SSW LSE 45 WSW RFD SPI 35 S UIN IRK 45 W DSM
SUX 30 NW FSD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 50 WSW IWD
15 W AUW 25 SW MKG 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP 30 SW CKV 35
SSE POF 20 NNE UMN 20 ENE ICT 35 NW HUT 25 SW EAR 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW
LAA 15 E CAO 45 SW TCC 15 N ALM 15 NW ELP ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 10
WSW IGM 30 WNW SGU 35 WNW U24 10 SSW EVW 10 WSW RIW 35 W GCC 30 W
MLS 35 E 3HT 35 S 27U 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI
...CONT... 20 NNW 4BK 15 NE RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 30 NW VCT
25 NW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45
ENE SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.  PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
MN/IA TODAY...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. 
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF TROUGH FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN/NORTHERN IA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
FOCUS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL IA. 
AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES
OVER 2000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  STORMS MAY REMAIN
SEVERE INTO THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO CENTRAL IL.

...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
/AOA 30KT/ FROM THE BLACK HILLS NORTHWARD.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS A LACK OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS TOO
LOW TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK.  NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP LOW HAIL/WIND
PROBABILITIES SINCE ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE.

..HART/GUYER.. 09/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.