[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080607
SWODY1
SPC AC 080605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
SUX 30 W RWF 30 S STC 25 WNW EAU 15 NE VOK 10 S MSN 25 E MLI 30 NW
BRL 10 SSW DSM 45 NE OMA 30 NNE SUX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
CDR 45 ESE 81V 45 WNW Y22 20 W BIS 35 WSW JMS ABR 30 SSW 9V9 45 NNW
MHN 35 W CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 30 NW VCT
25 NW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45
ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 10 WSW IGM
30 WNW SGU 35 WNW U24 45 W RKS 30 E RIW 40 WSW GCC 30 W MLS 35 E 3HT
35 S 27U 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI ...CONT... 20 NNW
4BK 15 NE RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR ...CONT... 30 NNE ELO
50 WSW IWD 15 W AUW 40 NNW BEH 40 NE MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP
40 ENE MKL 20 NNW ARG 10 NNE OJC 15 WSW HSI 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 15
E CAO 45 SW TCC 30 SE ONM 35 SE DMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS...

...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY REGION...

EARLY MORNING MCS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN MN INTO ERN SD.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE
ESEWD WITHIN MEAN FLOW TOWARD PORTIONS OF SRN WI/NRN IL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
WILL OCCUR FROM NERN MO INTO NWRN IL AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. 
WHETHER AN ARTIFACT OF EARLY MORNING DEEP CONVECTION...OR A LARGER
SCALE DISTURBANCE ALOFT...IT APPEARS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE
FROM THIS CLUSTER AS IT ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM.  IT APPEARS AN UPWARD
EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGER STORM CLUSTER.


...DAKOTAS...

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING PARCELS TO
REACH THEIR LFC SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.  IT APPEARS THE BLACK
HILLS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR 00Z AS SFC
BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NEWD AFTER DARK AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...IN EXCESS OF
40KT...OVER CNTRL SD.  MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME LARGE SCALE
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH MAY ENHANCE
THE LIKLIHOOD OF CONVECTION LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
STRONG VEERING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER YIELDING SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 35-50KT.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.