[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080059
SWODY1
SPC AC 080058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
CDR 30 ENE RAP 20 SSE MBG 50 SW ABR 9V9 50 ENE CDR 40 W IML 30 ENE
LAA 15 NNW LHX 20 NNW BFF 50 NW CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 ESE PRC
40 ENE INW 35 SE U17 30 WSW 4HV 35 S EVW 30 WNW RKS 50 NNW LAR 25
NNE DGW 10 ENE 81V 55 SSE GDV 35 E SDY 15 ESE MOT 10 W DVL 40 NNE
FAR 30 E AXN 20 NNE MKT 25 WSW ALO 10 SSE DSM 15 SE OMA 40 NW OFK 40
E ANW 20 SE MHN MCK 25 WSW RSL 45 SE DDC TCC 35 WSW ROW 10 WNW ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PBG 35 W SYR 10
SSW CAK 10 NE DNV 30 SW MMO 15 W MKE 50 NW MBL 40 N APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15
NW ILM 20 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LRD 10 W ALI 20
ESE VCT 20 SW GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM THE SRN BLACK HILLS OF SD...INTO SERN CO. A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ARE PROPAGATING SHARPLY SWD ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...SLY INFLOW MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFT
EFFICIENCY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY.  UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

...ERN DAKOTAS...

STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES ON 00Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT THAT IS AIDING BANDED MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS SRN SD INTO
NRN SD.  A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS INTO INITIATION REGION.  00Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCEL ASCENT WILL REMAIN ROOTED NEAR 800MB...YET
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING SOME HAIL.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS THUS PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.


...FL...

TROPICAL SYSTEM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z
WITH CENTER OF CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 100 ENE OF MLB.  ALTHOUGH OUTER
RAINBANDS ARE ROTATING INLAND...IT APPEARS ANY MEANINGFUL TORNADO
THREAT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE MAINLAND THIS PERIOD.  REF NHC
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON OPHELIA.

..DARROW.. 09/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.