[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071934
SWODY1
SPC AC 071932

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
81V REJ 50 SW MBG 50 ENE PIR 40 SE 9V9 50 WNW LBF 30 NNW GLD 25 ENE
LIC 25 ESE DEN 10 ENE FCL 50 SE DGW 65 WSW RAP 45 NNE 81V.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
CWA 25 WNW MBL 10 SW HTL 35 S HTL 20 N GRR 40 E MKE 15 ESE LNR 20
NNW LNR 35 S CWA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 30 SW CAK
25 ESE MTO MKC 20 SW PNC TCC 35 WSW ROW 10 WNW ELP ...CONT... 75 WSW
TUS 35 ESE PRC 40 ENE INW 35 SE U17 30 WSW 4HV 35 S EVW 30 WNW RKS
50 NNW LAR 40 NNW DGW 25 ENE SHR 20 WSW MLS 25 WSW GDV 45 WSW P24 45
NE JMS 50 NNW AXN 40 E STC 25 NNW AUW 35 N TVC 40 N APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LRD 10 W ALI 20
ESE VCT 20 SW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15
NW ILM 20 E ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN UPPER
GREAT LAKES...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...
LOW-LEVEL SSELY FLOW IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE
FLOW.  AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW
INDICATED/...ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ACROSS
PARTS OF SERN WY/ERN CO...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW INDICATED
 JUST E OF CYS.

THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 700 MB SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM
COVERAGE.  WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP HOWEVER...MODEST /20 TO 25 KT/
MID-LEVEL WLYS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. 
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER A BROADER PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AS SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP N OF SURFACE FRONT -- AND THUS REMAIN PRIMARILY
ELEVATED.  THOUGH A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER
STORMS...LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED.

...MID MO VALLEY EWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL
 WI AND EWD INTO NRN LOWER MI...INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD
OF VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  DAYTIME HEATING HAS
ALLOWED 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP INVOF
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A ZONE OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING.  

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUES
TO BE THE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.  STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS
LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...PRESENCE
OF VORT MAX ALOFT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION -- AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH
WEAK/SMALL-SCALE BOW OVER CENTRAL WI ATTM.  THESE AREAS OF GREATER
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SUGGEST A LOCALLY-ENHANCED THREAT FOR MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND...AND THUS WILL ADD A SMALL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. 
HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/MARGINAL THROUGH THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SLOW DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/CONVECTION WEAKENS.

..GOSS.. 09/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.