[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071607
SWODY1
SPC AC 071605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
MLS 65 SE GDV 20 N MBG 40 SW ABR 30 WSW MHE 20 SSW ANW 15 SSW LBF 35
NNW GLD 15 W AKO 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 25 SSW 4BQ 35 SE MLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 20 E PRC
35 ENE GCN 30 WNW 4HV 50 NE U24 25 E OGD 45 ESE BPI 25 SSE CPR 50
NNE CPR 20 WNW SHR 15 NW BIL 35 SSW GGW 65 NNE OLF ...CONT... 65 N
GFK 35 SSE BJI 40 E STC CWA 30 SSE ESC 15 S ANJ ...CONT... 35 NW BML
10 SSW CAK 20 ENE HUF 25 ESE MKC 30 NNW PNC 15 ENE LBB 30 S ROW 30
SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTY 40 N SAV 15
NW ILM 20 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 45 NW NIR
40 NE VCT 10 W GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS NEAR FAR
SERN MT/NERN WY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW WORKING
ITS WAY EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE
WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF LEE
TROUGH...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION EVIDENT ON RAP/S 12Z SOUNDING.  THIS WILL HINDER HEATING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WRN NEB AND CENTRAL SD. 
HOWEVER JUST WEST OF THESE CLOUDS...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND ASCENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON OR NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS.  BROAD AREA OF 25-35 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOW ECHOES.  EWD
EXTENT OF ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL BE
MODULATED BY HOW MUCH MIXING/DISSIPATION CAN OCCUR WITHIN CURRENT
AREA OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  AFTER
DARK...SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEB AND MAY SUPPORT
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING STORMS...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO AND EAST OF MID MO RIVER VALLEY.  ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN LOWER MI...
SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED EWD ACROSS THE NRN
MS RIVER VALLEY... AND INTO NRN LOWER MI...THIS MORNING GIVEN
CURRENT ORGANIZATION ALONG PERSISTENT STORM-OUTFLOW.  LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE PRECEEDING THESE STORMS THIS MORNING ALSO SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE WITH INFLUX OF AFTERNOON HEATING. 
HOWEVER...AREA VWP/S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE
WEAKLY ORGANIZED.  THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SRN WI/NRN IA INTO NRN NEB
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND EXPECTED MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS STRONGER CELLS WILL
BE BRIEF-LIVED WITH ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.  

...NERN FL/COASTAL GA...
WITH TS OPHELIA REMAINING JUST OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
/REFERENCE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM NHC/...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING/ROTATING WSWWD OVER THIS REGION.  LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK GIVEN NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
NELY WIND PROFILES.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOW LEVEL ROTATION MAY OCCUR
WITH STRONGER CELLS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...SUGGESTING TORNADO
THREAT IS NON-ZERO.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.