[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071250
SWODY1
SPC AC 071248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
REJ 35 S DIK 15 SSW BIS 20 NNE HON 15 ESE YKN OLU 10 E HSI 45 NNE
HLC 15 WNW GLD 15 W AKO 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 15 WSW 81V 30 NW REJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 30 NE AXN 15
SSE STC 20 ESE EAU 25 ESE CWA 40 E ESC 15 S ANJ ...CONT... 15 E EFK
10 SSW CAK 25 SSE SPI 25 ESE MKC 40 WNW END 15 NE CDS 35 E LBB 50 NE
HOB 25 ENE CNM 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 WNW PHX 10 SSW FLG
60 NNW INW 55 ESE PGA 15 E PUC 25 S RKS 30 NNE RWL 35 SW SHR 30 SE
3HT 75 WSW GGW 55 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTY 20 NW SAV
35 NNE CRE 25 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE DRT 45 WNW HDO
25 N SAT 25 ESE AUS 35 WNW HOU 15 WSW GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN
MT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD/NEB THIS AFTERNOON. 
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F AND AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CAP TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN SD.  THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NEB.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOWS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
 DURING THE EVENING MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY
FOR SOME THREAT OF TORNADOES AS WELL.  STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN
MCS AFTER DARK...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

...IA/IL/WI...
WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN IL
THIS AFTERNOON.  RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...SUPPORTING MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. 
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...FL/SC...
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY OFF THE
FL COAST.  JAX/CHS VAD PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  MARGINAL POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR BRIEF TORNADOES OR GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..HART/GUYER.. 09/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.