[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070552
SWODY1
SPC AC 070551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
SDY 35 E ISN 15 WSW MOT 40 NE BIS 20 NNE HON 15 ESE YKN OLU 10 E HSI
45 NNE HLC 50 WSW HLC 50 WNW GCK 10 NW LAA 40 S LIC 30 SW BFF 35 NE
DGW 30 SSE MLS 10 N SDY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 25 WNW PHX
10 SSW FLG 60 NNW INW 55 ESE PGA 15 E PUC 25 S RKS 30 NNE RWL 35 SW
SHR 35 ESE 3HT 75 NE LWT 45 N GGW ...CONT... 65 N GFK AXN 35 NNW MKT
30 SW EAU 30 SE CWA 35 NNW TVC 70 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 15 E EFK 10 SSW
CAK 25 SSE SPI 20 ENE MKC 35 S DDC 10 ESE CVS 45 WNW CNM 25 W ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTY 20 NW SAV
35 NNE CRE 25 SE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE DRT 45 WNW HDO
25 N SAT 25 ESE AUS 35 WNW HOU 15 WSW GLS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AS MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGHS REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WITH ONE TRACKING EWD TOWARD QUE AND
THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS ORE/NRN CA PER WV IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD ONT/QUE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SSEWD TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES
AND MID MS VALLEY.  THE WRN PORTION OF THIS COLD FRONT...INITIALLY
LOCATED OVER NRN/WRN NEB...WILL RETREAT NWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AS A LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TO THE
NRN PLAINS TODAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND
FIELDS FROM ERN MT/WY AND EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB/DAKOTAS
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WRN CANADA MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
INTO CENTRAL/WRN SD.  A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD
ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ID TROUGH AND
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS...UPSLOPE
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ALONG
THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN SD INTO ERN WY/SERN MT.
 A 25-30 KT SELY LLJ LOCATED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS AND BENEATH 35-40
KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN THIS STORM MODE...A COMBINATION OF SEVERE THREATS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO.  A STRENGTHENING/
VEERING LLJ NOSING INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT SUGGESTS AN UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD
PROPAGATING AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS/S.

...IA TO SWRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...MODEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6-6.5 C/KM/ WILL LIMIT SBCAPE WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS IA TOWARD THE SWRN GREAT LAKES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THIS BOUNDARY
ENCOUNTERS THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  WEAK MID LEVEL
WINDS/DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE COVERAGE.

..PETERS/CARBIN.. 09/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.