[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061952
SWODY1
SPC AC 061951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE MTC 40 WNW BEH
20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF
...CONT... 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW
BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM
...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 40 S INW 65 SSE PGA 30 NW PGA 35
SSE U24 15 WNW SLC 35 WNW RKS 35 NNW LND 50 ESE WEY 35 SW 27U 40 ESE
S80 45 WSW MSO 45 SW HVR 75 WSW GGW 45 NNE RAP 20 SW PIR 40 NW RWF
15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NWRN WI SWWD THROUGH SRN MN...NRN
NEB INTO NE CO WHERE IT INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
SWD THROUGH ERN CO. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S AND POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN SHIFTED S OF
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND SHEAR
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM. FARTHER W OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE CO...
DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOIST ELY UPSLOPE REGIME
HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND SERN WY...AND FARTHER NE
ALONG THE FRONT. MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT STORM
TYPE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.



...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AWAY
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND
WEAKENING FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT.
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL
SHEAR...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 09/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.