[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061625
SWODY1
SPC AC 061624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
AIA 15 NNE IML 35 ENE GLD 50 S GLD 40 SSE LIC 30 N COS 25 W FCL 25 S
LAR 25 NE LAR 25 NW BFF 30 SE AIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W
ANJ 30 SSE IMT 30 NNE VOK 20 S EAU 65 NW EAU 60 SE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX
40 S INW 65 SSE PGA 30 NW PGA 35 SSE U24 15 WNW SLC 35 WNW RKS 35
NNW LND 50 ESE WEY 35 SW 27U 40 ESE S80 45 WSW MSO 45 SW HVR 35 WSW
GGW 50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL
...CONT... 70 NNE MTC 40 WNW BEH 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N
CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF ...CONT... 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT 20 SE SAT
60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 30
NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN WI AND THE WRN U.P.
OF MI...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SWD OVER MUCH OF ERN CO AND THE
NEB PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH PRESSURE RISES AND COOL/DRY AIR NOW
IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ONCE ESELY SURFACE WINDS COMMENCE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NOW OVER FAR ERN CO/SWRN NEB WILL ADVECT WWD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SFC DEW POINTS LIKELY RECOVERING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER
FAR SERN WY/NERN CO.  THUS...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AFTER
21Z ACROSS THIS REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL SHIFT EWD OVER INCREASING INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  DESPITE WEAK WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT SFC-6 KM SHEAR FROM
30-40 KT RANGE.  THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER CELLS MAY SUSTAIN ROTATION
AND INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG LEE TROUGH ONCE
AGAIN TODAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO THE U.P.
OF MI THIS AFTERNOON.  APPEARS SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT FOR AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.  THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM INTENSITIES/
ORGANIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG NRN
PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE WRN
U.P. OF MI AND NRN WI. HERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
UNDER MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD SUPPORT FEW ORGANIZED LINES
AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MORE LIMITED WIND/HAIL THREAT SWWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.