[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061253
SWODY1
SPC AC 061252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 E SUX 40 NE HLC 15 WSW GCK 20 S LAA 35 ESE COS 30
SE DEN 25 WNW FCL 50 SSW DGW 40 NE DGW 30 NNW CDR 45 W VTN 40 NE ANW
20 SE BKX 30 NNE MSP 45 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX
20 ESE INW 65 NW GUP 25 WSW 4BL 15 SSW U28 30 WSW VEL 10 ENE RKS 25
N RIW 50 WNW COD 35 SW BZN 30 S HLN 35 ENE HLN 45 NW MLS 25 SE GDV
50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL
...CONT... 15 S OSC 35 S MKE 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS
20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT
20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40
SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SD/MN/WI...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH BAND OF WESTERLY MID LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.  LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER MN WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST SD. 
DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  LACK OF
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...NEB/KS/CO/WY...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEB INTO
NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 
AIR MASS IS ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO IN FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST KS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.


OTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
SURFACE THETA-E AXIS FROM NORTHEAST NM...ACROSS WESTERN KS...INTO
SOUTHERN NEB.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THIS
REGION...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-SEVERE. 
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY OUTLOOKED LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS
AREA.

..HART/GUYER.. 09/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.