[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060549
SWODY1
SPC AC 060548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 WNW DSM 40 NE HLC 15 WSW GCK 20 S LAA 35 ESE COS
30 SE DEN 25 WNW FCL 50 SSW DGW 40 NE DGW 30 NNW CDR 45 W VTN 40 NE
ANW 20 ENE FSD 30 NNE MSP 45 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OSC 35 S MKE 20
W MLI 20 ENE FLV 10 ESE ICT 15 N CDS 20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF
...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX 20 ESE INW 65 NW GUP 25 SW 4BL 15
SW CNY 35 SW VEL 35 SSE RKS 20 E BIL 30 NW MLS 25 ESE GDV 50 SW MBG
55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 NW SAV
20 N CRE 10 SE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT
20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM UPPER MI AND WI SWWD TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN/CENTRAL
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER ONTARIO TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS MN/WI/UPPER MI.  THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.

...MN/NRN IA/WI/UPPER MI THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SURGED SEWD INTO SRN/ERN MN AND
SERN SD...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BEING FED FROM THE SW BY A NARROW
INSTABILITY CORRIDOR THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH A 50 KT LLJ FROM NEB
INTO SW MN.  THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...THOUGH
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ALONG
WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT...SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN IA/SRN MN/WI.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
MID-UPPER WESTERLIES NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOWS.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F
/BENEATH A PLUME OF 8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NW
KS/NE CO/WRN NEB AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS.  GRADUAL RECOVERY
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEB/NW KS...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NE CO/WRN NEB...WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH
WLY MID-UPPER FLOW EXCEEDING 50 KT NEAR 300 MB.  THUS...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
CONVECTION EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS.

NWD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN...WHERE
ELEVATED STORMS WITH SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 09/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.