[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051619
SWODY1
SPC AC 051618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW
CMX 50 W IWD 25 SE MKT 25 SW OLU 40 SSW MCK 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40
WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN PRC PGA
35 W PUC 10 WSW EVW PIH 30 W MQM HLN LWT MLS 10 SSE OLF 60 NNW GGW
...CONT... 130 ENE CMX OSH DBQ LWD ICT 40 ESE GAG CDS 70 ESE LBB SJT
10 SSW DRT ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 10 NE CLL GGG TXK HOT JBR DYR BNA
35 NNW CHA GAD SEM 25 SE CEW ...CONT... CTY AYS 40 NW SAV 45 SE CAE
FLO 45 WSW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN RED RIVER VALLEY WSWWD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY.  DEEP MIXING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE MOIST CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS NNWWD ALONG LEE TROUGH TO A LOW CENTER OVER SERN ND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN BROAD
 DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD WEAKEN CAP INTO ND AND CENTRAL/NERN SD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN FIRST JUST
BEHIND H85-H7 COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ND AROUND 20-21Z.  MORNING
MODELS EXPAND MOIST CONVECTION EWD AND SWD OVER THIS REGION THROUGH
THE MID EVENING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF
SD/ND AND WRN MN WHERE LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE
LARGE/ WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO A
BOW ECHO FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING INTO SERN ND/NERN SD/W-CENTRAL
MN WITH ATTENDANT INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER
DARK...ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG NOSE
OF 50+ SWLY LLJ AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN WITH SEVERE THREAT
LIKELY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

HOW FAR SOUTH INTO WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR REMAINS MORE
QUESTIONABLE.  HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DEEP MIXING AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXCEED THE LOWER 90SF SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  PREDOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE
MULTICELLULAR WITH A MIX OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL...WITH SEVERE
THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER DARK.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.