[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051957
SWODY1
SPC AC 051955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW
CMX 60 SE DLH 15 S MKT 25 SW OLU 45 ENE GLD 20 NNW GLD 45 W IML 30
WNW VTN 10 ESE MBG 10 NE BIS 70 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CTY AYS 40 NW SAV 45
SE CAE FLO 45 WSW HSE ...CONT... 100 NNW ANJ 40 S IMT 15 N DBQ 35 NE
P35 20 WNW EMP 40 E GAG 35 NNE CDS 65 NNW ABI SJT 10 SSW DRT
...CONT... 55 WSW COT 10 NE CLL GGG TXK HOT JBR DYR BNA 35 NNW CHA
GAD SEM 25 SE CEW ...CONT... 75 S GBN GBN PRC PGA 35 W PUC 10 WSW
EVW PIH 30 W MQM 35 ESE HLN 35 ESE LWT MLS 10 SSE OLF 60 NNW GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...ERN DAKOTAS...NEB THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO SERN MT. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO NERN CO.
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO
WRN MN AND SWWD INTO NEB. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS STILL
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. HEATING IS BEING TEMPERED SOMEWHAT
OVER ND INTO MN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS WIDESPREAD...KEEPING 
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PERSIST FROM ERN SD INTO MN DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD FOCUS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THIS REGION AS THE
CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR CURRENTLY REMAINS
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS MN...SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...A BELT OF STRONGER (30-40 KT) MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN
MCS AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE CAP
WEAKENING FARTHER SW INTO NEB. MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 09/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.