[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051243
SWODY1
SPC AC 051241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW
CMX 50 W IWD 25 SE MKT 25 SW OLU 40 SSW MCK 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40
WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 NE CMX 20 SSW GRB
25 ESE RFD BMI SPI 35 SE BRL 20 W MLI 40 ENE ALO 30 WSW ICT 10 SW
GAG 35 N CDS 70 ESE LBB 25 NW SJT 10 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 20 SSW AYS
15 NNE SAV 20 NNW CHS 15 NNE CRE 45 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LRD 25 SSW CLL
20 ENE LFK 15 NE SHV LIT 45 SW JBR 10 N MKL 30 SSE CKV 30 E BNA 35
NNW CHA 30 NNE GAD 15 SSE BHM 30 WNW SEM 60 SW SEM 25 S CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 35 S PHX 35
S PRC 40 N PRC 60 SE PGA 30 SSW 4BL 10 NNW CNY 45 SSE RKS 15 N RWL
45 W CPR IDA 30 W MQM 20 SSE HLN 40 ESE LWT 30 SW MLS 25 NE MLS 35 S
OLF GGW 60 NNW GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL MT/WY.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY...LIKELY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY IN WAKE OF MORNING
STORMS...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG.  A WEAKENING
CAP...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT...WILL HELP
INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS OVER EASTERN ND/SD.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

...NEBRASKA...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NEB INTO EASTERN CO.  FULL
SUNSHINE AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID INITIATION. 
MODELS SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION /MULTICELL OR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES/.  ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR
HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

..HART/JEWELL.. 09/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.