[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050554
SWODY1
SPC AC 050552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW
CMX 50 NNW EAU 55 ESE SUX 50 NE HLC 40 W HLC 25 NW GLD 45 NNW IML 40
WNW VTN 35 ESE MBG 40 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 35 S PHX 35
S PRC 40 N PRC 60 SE PGA 30 SSW 4BL 10 NNW CNY 45 SSE RKS 15 N RWL
20 WNW CPR 30 SSE WRL 55 SSW COD 10 SSW JAC 15 NNW IDA 30 W MQM 20
SSE HLN 40 ESE LWT 30 SW MLS 35 SE MLS 20 S GDV 30 SSE OLF 20 WSW
GGW 65 NNW GGW ...CONT... 30 N ANJ 25 W OSH 25 WSW ALO 20 NE P28 15
WNW GAG 30 NW CDS 45 WNW ABI 10 NE JCT 25 NE SAT 35 NE CLL 20 NNW
SHV 25 SW HOT 45 SW JBR 25 N MKL 35 SE BWG 40 NNW TYS 25 SSW TYS 15
SE CHA 15 SSE BHM 30 WNW SEM 60 SW SEM 25 S CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 20 SSW AYS
15 NNE SAV 20 NNW CHS 15 NNE CRE 45 WSW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MT/ND/NRN
MN AND ADJACENT REGIONS OF SRN CANADA AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CANADA. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
SPEED MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WRN
ND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL MB BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS.  BY 00Z...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN MB SWWD
TO FAR ERN ND...AND THEN WSWWD INTO WY.  A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS TO SERN
CO.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...STRONGEST FORCING FOR LIFT AND
ATTENDANT THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN INTO SERN MB/NWRN ONT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING NEWD INTO NWRN ONT THIS
MORNING.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
FAR NRN MN...AS THIS LEAD TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ WILL SPREAD EWD
ATOP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED EAST OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
RESULTING IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN/NRN MN.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGER TROUGH OVER CANADA...WILL
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.  THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS
BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM ERN ND/NERN SD INTO WRN/NRN MN. 
MODELS SUGGEST STORM MODE MAY BECOME LINEAR AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES
EWD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING.

INSTABILITY FARTHER S ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO NEB AND WRN
KS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS...BUT SHOULD BE MODERATE RANGING FROM
1000-2500 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEB INTO NWRN KS.  LARGE HAIL
/POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  

...NRN HIGH PLAINS /SERN MT INTO NRN AND ERN WY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN/ERN WY AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN THIS
REGION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS
THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 09/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.