[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050059
SWODY1
SPC AC 050058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45
SSW BJI 25 NNW HON PIR 35 WNW PIR 45 WNW MBG 50 SE MOT 75 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 10 SSE BTR
20 NNW MCB 30 NE JAN 10 NW CBM 15 NNW BHM 40 E 0A8 30 SW DHN 30 N
AQQ 30 ENE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SAN 45 N TRM
50 NNW IGM 25 NNE MLF 35 W SLC 40 SE BYI 10 NE TWF 45 NNW OWY 70 SE
BNO 30 NE BNO 40 ESE PDT 35 NNW 3TH 105 WNW CTB ...CONT... 50 N CMX
40 E IWD 15 SE RHI 35 S OSH 20 NE MMO 25 NW DEC 15 ENE VIH 25 WNW
FSM 35 SW DUA 20 N ACT 30 S TPL 50 SE AUS 50 N PSX 10 WSW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY 40 W JAX
15 NE SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO NWRN MN...

...NRN PLAINS TO NRN MN...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MB
SWWD INTO CENTRAL ND TO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND THEN WWD INTO WY. A
LEE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SWWD INTO FAR ERN CO.  AIR MASS
ALONG/E OF THE TROUGHS IN THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN IS MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE...BUT REMAINS CAPPED. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A WELL
DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS ATTM PER WV
IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE SPREAD ENEWD WEAKENING THIS CAP. AS THE CAP
WEAKENS AND/OR LLJ STRENGTHENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD INTO NWRN MN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS /MT TO WRN ND/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER ID...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
MT TONIGHT.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTENING ATOP A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEED 40F.  THUS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL INTO ERN MT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...WRN KS/PARTS OF WRN NEB...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN KS ATTM
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LEE TROUGH.  STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ
IS RESULTING IN 25-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...
DESPITE MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /10-15 KT AT 500 MB/.  A DEEP WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30
DEGREES WILL TEND TO FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO MID EVENING.

..PETERS.. 09/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.