[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041958
SWODY1
SPC AC 041956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45
SSW BJI 25 NNW HON PIR 35 WNW PIR 40 W MBG 45 SE MOT 75 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 10 SSE BTR
20 NNW MCB 30 NE JAN 15 SSW CBM 20 NE TCL 35 E 0A8 30 SW DHN 30 N
AQQ 30 ENE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW SAN 45 N TRM
50 NNW IGM 25 NNE MLF 35 W SLC 40 SE BYI 10 NE TWF 45 NNW OWY 70 SE
BNO 30 NE BNO 40 ESE PDT 35 NNW 3TH 105 WNW CTB ...CONT... 50 N CMX
40 E IWD 15 SE RHI 35 S OSH 20 NE MMO 25 NW DEC 15 ENE VIH 25 WNW
FSM 35 SW DUA 20 N ACT 30 S TPL 50 SE AUS 50 N PSX 10 WSW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON
15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY GNV 35 NNW
DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NCNTRL US WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN
MT AND ERN WY DRIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS CAPPED...INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EARLY EVENING ACROSS
ECNTRL ND AND CNTRL SD.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO
NE SD. SFC DEWPOINTS NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 60S F AND
ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CNTRL ND WHICH APPEARS THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET.

VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IF THE
STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES  EXTENDING NEWD FROM WRN SD INTO ERN ND SHOULD PROMOTE
LARGE HAIL FORMATION. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE FASTER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORM SEGMENTS. STORM INTENSITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE CAPPING INVERSION
BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.

...HIGH PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL AID THE INITIATION OF
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN MT...ERN WY AND ERN CO. AS THE STORMS MOVE
ENEWD INTO THE PLAINS...HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY TO THE
EAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INTENSIFICATION. MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD
BE BRIEF AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NEWD EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREADING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 09/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.