[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041642
SWODY1
SPC AC 041640

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
ELO 20 ENE BJI 60 WSW ABR 35 WNW PIR 35 ESE Y22 35 NW BIS 60 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB
15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 55 NNW IWD
40 WNW IWD 40 W RHI 25 ESE RHI 40 NNE MKE 45 SSE CGX 25 SSE SPI 20 W
VIH 20 NW FYV 25 WSW PGO 35 NNW DAL 50 SW CLL 25 NE GLS ...CONT...
10 NNW SAN 35 NNW TRM 10 WNW IGM 25 WSW U24 30 SSW MLD 20 ENE BYI 35
NNW OWY 70 SE BNO 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 35 WSW S06 90 WNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 25 SSE GNV 25 NE
VLD 45 NW AYS 45 SSE AGS 15 SSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON
15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 15 SSW HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON
15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PART OF
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD.  WLY/SWLY FLOW
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SHIFTING
EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WITHIN THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED
FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREA NEWD INTO WY THIS MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO EXTREME N CENTRAL MN...

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW OVER W CENTRAL ND WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN SD INTO SWRN IA.  IN ADDITION...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS WSWWD THRU S CENTRAL MT THEN CONTINUES NWWD THRU THE
NRN ID PANHANDLE.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OCCURRED THIS MORNING ON
NOSE OF 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION ZONE.  THIS WILL MOVE
NEWD TODAY EVIDENT BY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NRN MN AT
THIS TIME MOVING EWD TOWARD NWRN WI/WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI.

SURFACE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NEWD TODAY INTO NERN ND BY TONIGHT AS
 COLD FRONT DRAGS SEWD EXTENDING INTO N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL SD. 
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON GOING INTO THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AREA UNDERNEATH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO
ENHANCE UVVS.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8.0-8.5 C/KM.  HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT ACCORDING TO THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ELEVATED. BUT
GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT...

SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER LATER TODAY
UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF 50-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF 50
KT WITH 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 350 M2/S2. 
PROFILES ARE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS.

..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 09/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.