[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041224
SWODY1
SPC AC 041223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25
N BJI 60 WSW ABR 35 WNW PIR 30 WSW MBG 15 N BIS 60 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB
15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DAB 15 E VLD
45 NW AYS 55 WNW SAV 20 SSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 50 NW TUS
PRC 10 NNE GCN 30 N BCE 35 E U24 35 N OGD 45 ESE SUN 25 NW SUN 45
WNW BOI 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 45 SSW S06 95 NNE 3TH ...CONT... 50
ENE ELO 15 N HIB 35 WSW DLH 65 NNW EAU 20 SE RHI 40 NNE MKE 25 SW
CGX 40 SE UIN JLN 20 SW MKO 40 ESE OKC 35 SSE SPS 25 NE BWD 45 NW
AUS 45 ESE AUS 25 NE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SRQ MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON
15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD...ND...AND
WESTERN MN...

...ND/MN/SD...
UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN WY. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
 PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST ND
TO NEAR RAP.  AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MLCAPE
VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH MUCH OF DAY...LIKELY SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG HEATING ACROSS SD AND UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
AID THREAT.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG FRONT FROM EASTERN ND INTO CENTRAL SD...SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MN DURING EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...MN/WI THIS MORNING...
CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED NEAR MSP MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST IA TODAY.  ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...BUT
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

...CO/NEB...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PARTS
OF NEB/CO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION.

...MT...
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT. 
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MT...SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.  DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND RELATIVELY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF GUSTY
WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/JEWELL.. 09/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.