[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040610
SWODY1
SPC AC 040609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 25
N BJI 40 WSW FAR 35 SSW JMS 25 SE BIS 20 NNW BIS 55 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 50 ESE MCB
15 E LUL 30 WSW SEM 25 WSW DHN PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DAB 15 E VLD
45 NW AYS 55 WNW SAV 20 SSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 50 NW TUS
30 ESE PRC 35 W GUP 55 S 4BL 35 E DPG 10 SSE MLD 35 NNW PIH 45 N SUN
45 WNW BOI 40 ENE BNO 25 WNW BKE 45 SSW S06 105 NNE 3TH ...CONT...
30 ENE ELO 10 NW HIB 20 ENE BRD 60 NE MSP 20 SE RHI 40 NNE MKE 25 SW
CGX 30 SW UIN JLN 15 SSW TUL 45 SSE SPS 10 S TPL 25 NE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SRQ MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PIR 30 SW VTN
55 ENE SNY 30 ENE IML 20 ENE LBF 55 E ANW 15 ESE MHE 20 ENE HON 40
ENE PIR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BOS 20 SW CON
15 ESE LEB 15 ESE BML 25 SSW HUL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
ND INTO NWRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BC SATURDAY EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TOWARD AB AND THE NRN ROCKIES
TODAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE EWD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE NRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS REGION.  A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH TRACKING NEWD OVER ID TO MT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MANITOBA AND
ALSO INTO CENTRAL ND.  AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
NEWD ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE IN ND.  MEANWHILE...SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER ERN MT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST. 

...NRN PLAINS...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MN INTO SWRN WI AND NERN IA/NWRN IL
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND ACTIVITY
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE AXIS.

A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE FROM
THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS
MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO ATOP SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM ND INTO
WRN WI..BUT MUCH OF THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EML.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THIS REGION SHOULD
AID IN WEAKENING THE CAP OVER ND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM MB SWWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL ND BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD
INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NERN ND. 

FURTHER S ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO WRN SD TO NERN CO...STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED DUE TO A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL WINDS.

...MT/WY TO WRN ND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SWRN MT/NWRN WY THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. VERY STEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE
COVERAGE.  THUS...HAVE FORECAST LOW SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES
FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO ERN MT/WRN ND
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS
NEWD.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 09/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.