[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031949
SWODY1
SPC AC 031948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
DSM 45 S SPW 25 NNW FSD 20 SW ATY 65 N ATY 50 ESE FAR 10 ENE BRD EAU
40 WNW LNR 15 W DBQ 30 WSW CID 20 NNE DSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 40 SSW SGU
20 E ENV 45 NNW SUN 45 WSW S80 15 NNW PUW 50 NW S06 85 NE 3TH 45 N
GTF SHR 30 SE CYS 15 NE TCC 25 W HOB 30 SSE INK 65 NE P07 30 S SJT
25 ESE BWD 10 E MWL 30 NE FSI 30 SSE RSL 40 NE BUB 20 E 9V9 50 WNW
ABR 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 65 ENE ELO 35 NNE RHI 15 WSW OSH JVL 25 SW
STL 25 WNW LIT 40 ESE SHV 40 NW LFT 15 SSW BTR 50 NW GPT 15 ESE SEM
20 S AUO ABY 25 S VLD 10 NW GNV 15 NNW DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST AND NRN PLAINS...

...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
IN THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN MN. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUSTAINING THE CURRENT STORM
ACTIVITY AND SUPPORTING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WNW TO ESE FROM NRN SD INTO SW MN
AND NRN IA. A CAPPED AIRMASS EXISTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. NORTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...THE INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED AND THE STORMS ONGOING
ACROSS SRN MN ARE LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE 850 MB. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE
ONGOING CONVECTION IN SCNTRL MN. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE IN NRN IA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EVENING HOURS.

PROFILERS IN SW MN CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KT.
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY A BIT LESS DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF
THE STORMS. STILL...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE LINEAR ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE FROM MULTICELLS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS
POSSIBLE. AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE...MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE LESS DUE TO THE COOLER SFC AIR NORTHEAST OF
THE WARM FRONT.

..BROYLES.. 09/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.