[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031642
SWODY1
SPC AC 031640

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAU 20
ESE LSE 35 WNW DBQ 20 SSW ALO 15 WNW OTG BKX 20 N ATY 55 S FAR 25
ESE FAR BRD 55 SSW DLH EAU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 45 SE EED
25 NE LAS 45 NNE P38 35 N DPG 40 W IDA 35 N SUN 55 NNE BOI 15 WNW
BNO 55 SSE RDM 20 W RDM 35 WNW PDT 10 NW GEG 40 NNE 63S ...CONT...
55 N ISN 20 WSW ISN 65 E LWT 35 SW BIL 30 ENE WRL 40 S DGW 20 ESE
AKO 40 S DHT 45 WNW CDS 35 SE FSI 30 S ICT 20 S EAR 35 WSW YKN HON
55 NE MBG JMS 30 SSW TVF 10 WNW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 15 SE MKE
35 SE BRL 40 ENE COU 50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE
7R4 ...CONT... 50 N PIE 15 SE DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
PACIFIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM
MCS MOVING OVER MN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TURN SEWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT ADVANCES BEYOND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS INTO REGION OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
REGION.  WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SD INTO IA
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD ALTHOUGH MOVEMENT MAY BE INHIBITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH MCS MOVING ACROSS
PARTS OF MN.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
CURRENT MCS IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. 
ANIMATED RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE ROTATION WITHIN
NRN PORTION OF MCS...WITH QUASI-LINEAR LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT IS EXHIBITING WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN IR
IMAGERY SUGGESTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN UPDRAFT INTENSITY OF
SYSTEM.  ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 700 MB BASED ON
12Z ABR SOUNDING AND CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS.  WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR HAIL.

STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
MCS CLOUD SHIELD...AND ALTHOUGH PRIMARY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY
LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD
INCREASE.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD THE ZONE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN AND NWRN IA.  ATTENDANT CAP OVER THE DAKOTAS
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE DAKOTAS.  HOWEVER...WE WILL MONITOR
THE REGION OF NERN SD..SERN ND INTO MN IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT MCS
FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES WARM
ADVECTION LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..WEISS/TAYLOR.. 09/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.