[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031231
SWODY1
SPC AC 031229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABR 55
SE JMS FAR BRD 55 SSW DLH EAU RST FRM BKX ABR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 35 E BLH 30
N EED 45 W SGU 25 WSW U24 30 NE OGD 35 SE IDA 35 ENE WEY 30 NNW COD
35 ENE RWL 25 NE CYS 40 WNW AKO 25 SSW AKO 25 NE GLD 30 NNW HLC EAR
20 NNW OLU 30 NW SUX 25 WSW FSD 15 WSW MHE 35 ENE PIR 20 ENE BIS 10
SW GFK 10 NW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 25 E JVL 30 SW BRL 40 ENE COU
50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 65
NNE ISN 10 N SDY 60 SSE RDM 30 SSW RDM 25 NE RDM 25 ENE ALW 35 NW
S06 70 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PIE 30 E ORL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...UPPER MIDWEST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED MUCH
OF THE DAY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG...ABOVE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION.  EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ROTATION...PROMOTING
A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
REINFORCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SD INTO
SOUTHWEST MN.

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG
AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE CAPPING
INVERSION...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.  HOWEVER...IF
SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  FORECAST LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD INDICATE A RISK OF
SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  THIS RISK SEEMS RATHER LIMITED
AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..HART/JEWELL.. 09/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.