[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030600
SWODY1
SPC AC 030558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ATY 50
ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 NNW BRD 55 SSW DLH 20 NW EAU 35 NW LSE 20 SSW
RST 25 SE FRM 20 N OTG ATY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 10 N SDY
30 NW BNO 35 SE RDM 25 ENE RDM 25 ENE ALW 35 NW S06 70 ENE 63S
...CONT... 30 SE YUM 35 E BLH 30 N EED 45 W SGU 25 WSW U24 25 ENE
OGD 45 W RKS 25 ESE RWL 25 NE CYS 40 WNW AKO 25 SSW AKO 25 NE GLD 30
NNW HLC EAR 20 NNW OLU 30 NW SUX 25 WSW FSD 15 WSW MHE 35 ENE PIR 25
ESE BIS 10 SW GFK 10 NW RRT ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 25 E JVL 30 SW BRL
40 ENE COU 50 NW POF 25 SW LIT 30 ENE SHV 20 SE POE 25 ESE 7R4
...CONT... 20 NNW PIE 30 E ORL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
DAKOTAS...SRN MN AND WRN WI...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES...SOME
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE WRN
TROUGH AND THEN CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
SRN MN. ELSEWHERE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
WITHIN WEAK FLOW BENEATH EXTENSIVE AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA TO TX AND THE OZARKS.

...ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS SRN MN...
PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR REPEAT SEVERE MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY FROM THE MO RIVER VLY NWD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. A
WARM FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND ROUGHLY
BISECT THE DAKOTAS FROM NW TO SE EARLY IN THE DAY. GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SFC TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL MCS
MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY AID
IN LOCALLY REINFORCING THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO
WRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OVERCOME 
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY NEAR THE FRONT TO RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL
FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED WELL BY THE LATEST GFS...ETA...AND
ETAKF GUIDANCE. STRONG TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE NEAR
AND ACROSS THE FRONT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL. WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER SFC-BASED
STORMS CAN TAKE ROOT. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED SFC-BASED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT AND INHIBITION BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE.
HOWEVER...FORECAST KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE
THAT EVEN AN ISOLATED CELL ANCHORED PREFERENTIALLY ON THE WARM FRONT
COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO. THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY LATER TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY VOLATILE CONDITIONS OVER A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA.

ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AFTER
DARK AND COULD EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS WITH ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL
THREAT SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF WRN WI OVERNIGHT.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 09/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.