[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 022002
SWODY1
SPC AC 022000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 25 S SGU 15
N MLF 35 NW PUC 30 N CAG 25 N LAR 45 ENE DGW 15 SE 81V 10 NNE 4BQ 30
ENE MLS 25 ENE GDV 20 SW MOT 25 SW DVL 45 WNW FAR 20 WNW RWF 30 NNW
DSM 40 SSE IRK 40 ENE UNO 55 WSW MEM 40 W GLH 35 ESE TXK 20 SE ADM
20 SW FSI 10 SE PVW 25 NW HOB 55 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 NE JCT
45 NE CLL 30 SW POE 10 WSW BTR 20 SSE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EPM 15 NNE AUG
25 W BML 25 NE PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 30 NE VLD
30 SSE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CTB 40 WNW LWT
40 SW LVM 15 SE MQM 65 NNW SUN 40 SW S80 35 NW 4OM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN SRN ND AND WRN SD. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED IN
NATURE...FORMING ALONG AND TO THE NE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
LOCATED FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING NWWD INTO SERN MT. AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES ESEWD...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD INITIATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CNTRL AND ERN SD TO ERN NEB
AND WRN IA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TONIGHT SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE WEAKER
INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS...ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.

...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL US
WITH WEST TO NW FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK REGION. A
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
AT LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWWD FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL
KS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS NEWD OF THE MOISTURE AXIS. ALTHOUGH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE STORMS IN SE KS AND WRN MO ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL PLUME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS
REGION TONIGHT SUGGEST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST CREATING
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
MARGINAL. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 09/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.