[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021632
SWODY1
SPC AC 021630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AQQ 30 NE VLD 30
SSE SAV ...CONT... 50 ESE P07 45 N SJT 10 NNW MWL 35 NNE LFT 30 NNW
BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH
60 ENE ELY 55 WSW SUN 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 50 NE HVR 20 SSE 3HT 35
SSW COD 20 SE BPI 55 SE RKS 25 WSW CYS 45 NNW BFF 50 NW REJ 15 NE
SDY 50 ENE MOT 30 NNE FAR 25 W MSP 35 NNW ALO 35 NNE DSM 10 SSW P35
15 NW VIH 30 S MKL 30 ESE TUP 40 NE JAN 45 SW GLH 25 WNW HOT 15 WNW
END 15 ENE GAG 60 S CVS 45 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EPM 15 W AUG
15 ENE MPV 25 WSW MSS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER
CENTRAL MT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD ERN MT...WHILE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO NRN NEB LIFTS SLOWLY NWD.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ELEVATED MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
ON THE LBF AND RAP SOUNDINGS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IS LIKELY TO ADVECT NWD FROM
KS/NEB INTO PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8C/KM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND EWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY AS HEIGHT RISES SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS BAND OF WSWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO NRN IA WITH POSSIBLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.  THESE WEAK FEATURES MAY INTERACT WITH
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NERN KS INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB TO
FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ARE
RATHER UNCERTAIN.  FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP /INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/ BUT OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS
INSUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM.

FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRIMARILY TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT.
 PRESENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
INDICATES THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL BUT COVERAGE
AGAIN APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM.

..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.