[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021236
SWODY1
SPC AC 021235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH
20 SSW SGU 45 SE U24 40 ESE VEL 10 NNW DEN 30 NW AKO 25 S RAP 30 S
DIK 45 NW P24 40 NE MOT 20 W STC 25 N MCW 35 SSE OTM 25 SSW JEF 35 W
ARG 30 WSW MSL TCL 35 E MEI 25 N JAN 40 WSW GLH 20 ESE MLC 50 WSW
TUL 45 ESE P28 50 NNW P28 45 SE DDC 25 ESE GAG 20 WNW CDS 20 NE LBB
15 E CNM 35 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HUL 35 N AUG 25
WNW MWN 15 NE SLK 40 NE ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 20 W VLD 35
NNE AYS 30 E SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE P07 40 N ABI
50 N FTW 30 E DAL 40 ESE SHV 30 NE LFT 25 NNW BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CTB 60 NE MSO
20 SW 3DU 35 WSW BTM 20 NNE 27U 25 NNW BKE LWS GEG 45 WNW GEG 20 SW
4OM 50 WNW 4OM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SD/NEB/IA THIS EVENING...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO SD/NEB
TODAY...WHERE AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. 
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SURFACE PARCELS WILL LIKELY BE
CAPPED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK FROM EASTERN SD INTO IA. 
RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL.  UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDES UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

...NEB/CO/KS THIS EVENING...
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM CO INTO KS.  MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES ARE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SPREADING
ACROSS WESTERN KS/NEB DURING THE EVENING.  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z.

..HART/BRIGHT.. 09/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.