[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020535
SWODY1
SPC AC 020533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE P07 40 N ABI
50 N FTW 30 E DAL 40 ESE SHV 30 NE LFT 25 NNW BVE ...CONT... 35 S
TLH 20 W VLD 35 NNE AYS 30 E SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HUL 35 N AUG 25
WNW MWN 15 NE SLK 40 NE ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CTB 60 NE MSO
20 SW 3DU 35 WSW BTM 20 NNE 27U 50 NW 27U 55 S S06 25 W S06 35 SW
63S 20 SW 4OM 50 WNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 50 NE BLH
20 SSW SGU 45 SE U24 40 ESE VEL 10 NNW DEN 30 NW AKO 25 S RAP 30 S
DIK 45 NW P24 40 NE MOT 20 W STC 25 N MCW 30 ENE P35 20 NE SZL JBR
30 WSW MSL TCL 35 E MEI 25 N JAN 40 WSW GLH 20 ESE MLC 50 WSW TUL 45
ESE P28 50 NNW P28 45 SE DDC 25 ESE GAG 20 WNW CDS 20 NE LBB 15 E
CNM 35 SE ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PLAINS...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS IN
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GRTLKS REGION ON
FRI.  AT THE SURFACE...A LEE-TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW EXPECTED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRI BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
LEE-TROUGH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS FRI AFTN.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...RISING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE VCNTY BLACK
HILLS AND ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH.  THUS...HEATING WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED TSTMS DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTN/EVE FROM WRN/SRN SD SWD INTO WRN NEB.  GIVEN A STORM...
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  WILL
MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBS.  LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO
HIGHER PROBS/CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/SRN SD.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE ERN DAKS AND SWRN MN.  THESE TSTMS WILL BE TIED TO
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG NOSE OF NOCTURNAL SWLY LLJ. 
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

FARTHER S...A WEAK COLD FRONT /PSBLY AUGMENTED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY/ WILL BACKDOOR INTO ERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO AND
NWRN AR.  AN UNSTABLE PLAINS AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE W OF THIS
FRONT FRI AFTN.  PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THIS REGION
MAY AID IN A FEW TSTMS.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRIMARILY SUPPORT
MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH PERHAPS ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...
MAINLY OVER ERN KS/SWRN MO.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 09/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.