[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011629
SWODY1
SPC AC 011627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2005

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25
S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 65 E BLH
20 NE IGM 55 WNW GCN 30 SSE PGA 25 NNW CEZ 20 W 4FC 25 ESE CYS 10 E
BFF 60 W VTN 15 N ANW 20 NW OFK 45 NNE FNB 30 SSW IRK 40 SSE SPI 20
NW IND 50 ESE BMG 40 NNE BWG 20 WSW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75
NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65 SSW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DRT 45 E JCT 60
WNW LFK 35 NW ESF 15 S LUL 50 NNW PNS 40 WSW ABY 50 NNW AYS 40 SW
CHS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN STATES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE PROFILES IN THE WAKE OF THE
KATRINA REMNANTS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GULF
COAST ALONG AND S OF A WEAK E-W SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS AREA. VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR FROM AZ AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY TO NEB TONIGHT...THOUGH
THE THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

...ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS
DEVELOPING...WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED INITIALLY
TO ERN NM.  MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL EXIST.

...AZ THIS AFTERNOON...
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TUS AND PHOENIX...MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F...REVEAL MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG.  CENTRAL AND ERN AZ IS WITHIN A LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
THAT IS DOWNSTREAM FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
AND SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENTLY
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS.

...N/NW KS INTO NEB TONIGHT...
A SERIES OF WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM A
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO...AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/WAA NWD FROM WRN KS TO NEB BY
TONIGHT.  A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS /BASED NEAR 700 MB/ MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM N CENTRAL/NW KS INTO CENTRAL/WRN NEB...WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...ERN KS TO CENTRAL MO TODAY...
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST
INTO WRN/CENTRAL MO TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EWD FROM NRN KS...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
THE WEAK INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 09/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.