[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 012003
SWODY1
SPC AC 012002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2005

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DRT 45 E JCT 60
WNW LFK 35 NW ESF 15 S LUL 50 NNW PNS 40 WSW ABY 50 NNW AYS 40 SW
CHS ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM 55 ENE BLH 20 NE IGM 55 WNW GCN 30 SSE PGA
25 NNW CEZ 20 W 4FC 45 ENE DGW 25 W RAP 50 NW VTN 15 N ANW 20 NW OFK
45 NNE FNB 30 SSW IRK 40 SSE SPI 20 NW IND 50 ESE BMG 40 NNE BWG 20
WSW HOP 55 NE PBF 45 WSW HOT DUA 75 NW ABI 20 NNW BGS 25 W FST 65
SSW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N 63S 45 NE EPH 25
S YKM 30 W DLS 30 WSW PDX 25 SSW AST.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW
ENGLAND SWWD THRU SOUTHERN OH INTO CENTRAL MO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS MOVING SWD THRU NERN ND/NWRN MN.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING AND HAVE LEFT A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO
SRN KS ALONG THE OK BORDER INTO W CENTRAL KS.

WEAK MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE IS MOVING NWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

TRAJECTORIES ARE CARRYING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ENEWD ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF
KS.  THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.  AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER NWRN OK.
 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE
BOUNDARIES...BUT LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

LATER THIS EVENING...NEW NAM MODEL SHOWS 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVER THE KS HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION TO ENHANCE MORE ELEVATED-TYPE CONVECTION INTO NWRN
AND N CENTRAL KS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SWRN U.S. ACROSS PARTS OF AZ INTO NM...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN PLATEAU
AREAS WHERE THERE IS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  ANALYSIS OF THE
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS WITH INVERTED-V
SIGNATURES INDICATING STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO
9.5C/KM.  THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT IN MANY
CASES THE LARGER THREAT WILL BE TO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS
THIS AREA.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.