[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 311239
SWODY1
SPC AC 311237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST MON OCT 31 2005

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
CRP 25 ESE HDO 40 ENE JCT SEP FTW 45 SSW PRX 10 N SHV 45 SE ESF 55
SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 75 S CDS
LTS 20 WNW EMP 40 S IRK 35 ESE BRL RFD 20 S LSE 30 N MKT 30 NW BRD
30 NW INL ...CONT... 50 E BAX 40 NNE FWA 25 SSW BMG 40 NE JAN 55 E
BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 30 ESE
PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX/LA...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK/TX AND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LONG BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST
KS/SOUTHWEST MO INTO NORTHWEST TX.  THESE STORMS ARE ALONG/AHEAD OF
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF
FRONT IS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.  ONLY
WEAK DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED IN PRE-FRONTAL REGION. 
HOWEVER...RAPID COOLING ALOFT AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS LINE MOVES
INTO MORE MOIST AIR.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO LA LATE TONIGHT...WHERE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.


...UPPER MIDWEST...
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION TODAY.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...COLD MID/LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES AND POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MN/WI/MI.  STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AROUND PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THIS REGION TODAY.

..HART/GUYER.. 10/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.