[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 310546
SWODY1
SPC AC 310545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN OCT 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ESE
CRP 15 NE COT 35 WNW HDO SEP FTW 25 SW PRX GGG 45 SE LFK 55 SSE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 65 S CDS
45 WNW CDS 55 ESE BGD 25 SSE CNU 10 WNW JEF 35 SW PIA 10 W RFD 20 S
LSE 30 N MKT 30 NW BRD 30 NW INL ...CONT... 50 E BAX 40 NNE FWA 30
WSW BMG DYR 40 NE JAN 55 E BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 30 ESE
PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
GRTLKS AND MS VLY BY EARLY TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF STRONG DISTURBANCES
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH.  THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH /55-65 KT
H5 JET/ WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/TX MONDAY AFTN TO THE
LWR MS VLY BY 12Z TUE. A WEAKER NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROTATE FROM
THE DAKS TO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT...TIED TO THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM...WILL INTENSIFY
AND SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/TX MONDAY AFTN AND INTO THE OH/LWR
MS VLYS AND TX GULF COASTAL AREA BY TUE MORNING.  THE SRN PORTION OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTN/EVE.

...CNTRL-ERN TX...
A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL EXIST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS WWD INTO
OK/SRN KS.  THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN OK WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL BE LOCATED.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN TX.  STRONG SSWLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN LOW/MID-60S DEW POINTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX. 
THE COLUMN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT AND CINH IS ERASED OWING TO INCREASING
UVV/MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.  AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP/EVOLVE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL/NCNTRL TX BY MID-DAY MONDAY.

STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS AS THE COLD FRONT
ACCELERATES SEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX BY
MID-AFTN.  THOUGH THE MEAN WIND VECTOR IN THE 2-6KM LAYER GRADUALLY
VEERS WITH TIME TO NWLY...THE INITIAL STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT UPDRAFTS SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. 
NONETHELESS...SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. THE LARGE HAIL RISK MAY BE HIGHER FARTHER WEST
CLOSER TO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/HEATING.

THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER TX COAST OVERNIGHT...
WITH STORMS ATTEMPTING TO BACKBUILD WWD ALONG THE FRONT AS SRN
PERIPHERY OF ENHANCED UVV GRAZES DEEP S TX.  THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD WANE...THOUGH...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. 
BUT...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN LA WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

...UPPER MS VLY...
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/UPPER
GRTLKS REGION MONDAY AFTN/EVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NRN STREAM
VORT MAX.  H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 25-MINUS 30 DEGREES C ATOP 40S
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TSTMS WITH SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS ECNTRL MN INTO PARTS OF NRN
WI.

..RACY/GUYER.. 10/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.