[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 310104
SWODY1
SPC AC 310102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST SUN OCT 30 2005

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CAG 40 NNW LIC
10 ESE ITR 25 WSW HLC 35 NNW CNK 15 S SDA 35 E LWD 30 SW PIA 15 ESE
DEC 45 SSE MTO 30 N PAH 25 SE POF HOT 25 E DAL 35 SSE BWD 20 ENE SJT
30 ESE PVW 55 E TCC 15 SSE RTN 15 NNW 4SL 80 NNE INW 20 SW PGA 45
ENE BCE 15 WSW U28 20 SW CAG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LOW-MID 50S DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED NWD
ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS BENEATH A CAP CENTERED NEAR 850 MB PER
00Z KOUN RAOB. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE H7-H5
LAYER HAD WARMED SINCE THIS MORNING...LIMITING OVERALL THERMAL
BUOYANCY SO FAR THIS EVE. 

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE LATER THIS EVE/
OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO/NM TRANSLATES
EWD.  ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL CAP AND
DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN.  

THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST TWO AREAS OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.  AS THE SWLY LLJ AXIS DECOUPLES...TSTMS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 02-03Z ACROSS SWRN MO/SERN KS AND CNTRL/ERN OK WHERE PARCELS
REACH THEIR LFC ON NERN EDGE OF THE SRN PLAINS CAP.  THESE STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED...BUT COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER TONIGHT. 

OTHER STORMS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ESEWD FROM SERN CO INTO SWRN KS/TX
PNHDL AND OK THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG/N OF A STRENGTHENING/SURGING
COLD FRONT.  THE STORMS MAY TEND TO FORM IN LINE SEGMENTS AND COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS UNTIL THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE UPDRAFTS
WITH TIME.  AT THAT POINT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..RACY.. 10/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.