[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 302000
SWODY1
SPC AC 301958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST SUN OCT 30 2005

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE OXV 20 ESE BRL
10 SSW SLO 15 ESE POF 20 S HOT 30 WNW TYR 40 SSE BWD 20 ENE SJT 30
ESE PVW 50 E TCC 10 SE RTN 30 NW 4SL 15 WNW 4BL 10 ESE JAC 50 ENE
WEY 40 SSE BIL 40 NW CDR 30 SW IML 20 W OMA 25 NNE OXV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN/AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS IT REACHES THE PLAINS.  EMBEDDED VORT MAX -- NOW EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER CO -- MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT...AS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS KS/OK INVOF
SEWD-MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SERN CO SEWD INTO SRN KS/OK...
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION HAS REMAINED MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE KS/OK REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH/VORT MAX APPROACHES.  THOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL COOL AFTER SUNSET...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF FRONT...AND JUST BEHIND FRONT WHERE PARCELS REACH THE LFC. 

THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...INCREASING MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW
MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. 
THEREFORE...EXPECT A LIMITED THREAT FOR ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL TO
EVOLVE.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT...A LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 10/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.