[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301613
SWODY1
SPC AC 301611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST SUN OCT 30 2005

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N GNA 40 ENE IWD
15 SSE RHI 15 E VOK 20 NE DBQ 40 WSW SPI 15 ESE POF 30 W LLQ 15 W
SHV 15 SSE CRS 40 SSE BWD 20 ENE SJT 30 ESE PVW 50 E TCC 40 WNW RTN
15 NNW U17 35 SSW DPG 15 S IDA 50 ENE WEY 40 SSE BIL 65 NW CDR 30
NNE LBF 30 SSE YKN 30 N STC 15 N ROX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z IN
RESPONSE TO FORECASTED INTENSIFYING TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

THIS MORNING EWD MOVING COLD FRONT UPR MS VALLEY EXTENDS SWWD INTO
NWRN OK AND THEN TRAILS WWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE.  SRN PORTION FRONT
WILL STALL TODAY AS PRESSURES FALL LEE OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING TROUGH.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD THRU TX/OK AND IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING WILL ALSO WORK NWWD
INTO SWRN KS LATER TODAY.

CURRENT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SWRN MO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING LEAD S/WV TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY TODAY. 
PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FREE OF CONVECTION OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF WEAK TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT CIN.

BY LATE AFTERNOON STEADY COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

COLD FRONT WILL REORGANIZE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING AND
PUSH E/SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO KS/WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO
SUPPORT FROM INTENSIFYING TROUGH.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER
00Z ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE ELEVATED MLCAPES FROM 500 TO
1000 J/KG ARE FORECASTED TO DEVELOP FROM OK INTO SRN KS.

GIVEN THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING
UPWARD MOTION A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND EWD ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK IN REGION OF ASCENT AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.

CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE...HOWEVER WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
AFTER DARK AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THE ONLY
MODIFICATION ATTM WAS TO EXPAND THE LOW END SEVERE RISK WWD FROM
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 10/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.