[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301240
SWODY1
SPC AC 301238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST SUN OCT 30 2005

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR 25 NE LBF 25 WNW
OFK 40 NW OTG 35 NNE STC 60 S ASX 25 NW VOK 45 ENE ALO 30 NW BRL 20
N FAM 20 SE POF 25 SSW PBF 25 W SHV 15 ESE CRS SEP 50 N ABI 35 W CDS
50 W RTN U17 30 NW U24 50 N DPG 40 ENE MLD 45 ESE WEY 35 NE COD 15
WNW GCC CDR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WITH TWO PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS.  A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER KS/OK.  THIS
FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
IA INTO NORTH TX.  SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BENEATH AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  LIMITED
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

A SECOND...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER UT/AZ...AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER DARK.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING...HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE AIR MASS AND AID IN THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BEGIN OVER PARTS OF
NM/CO ALONG/AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...OTHER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHERN
OK AFTER DARK. THIS IS WHERE FRONT WILL INTERSECT WESTERN FRINGES
OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FORCING
ALONG COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 03Z.

..HART/GUYER.. 10/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.