[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300502
SWODY1
SPC AC 300500

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT SUN OCT 30 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR 20 NNW MHN 40 SSW
MHE 30 SE BKX 35 NNE STC 60 S ASX 25 NW VOK 45 ENE ALO 30 NW BRL 20
N FAM 20 SE POF 25 SSW PBF 25 W SHV 15 ESE CRS SEP 50 N ABI 35 W CDS
50 W RTN U17 30 NW U24 50 N DPG 40 ENE MLD 45 ESE WEY 35 NE COD 15
WNW GCC CDR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST AND TURBULENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY AS A
STRONG JET DIGS THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...CARVING OUT A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.  A LEAD DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY TODAY WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE MAIN IMPULSE DROPS SEWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...STALLED FRONT FROM MN TO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SEWD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
SRN PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
MOST OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE IN WEAK RIDGING
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE UPSTREAM
STRONGER IMPULSE SUNDAY AFTN.  A CONTINUED SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
ADVECT A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS NWD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 50S IN ERN KS TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS TX BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

LATE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. 
STEEPER MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ATOP THE THETA-E AXIS BY EVENING...WITH MUCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF THE
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT.  TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SERN
KS AND CNTRL/ERN OK DURING THE EARLY/MID-EVENING.  STRONG PVA AND
MODEST INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
SEWD.  THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  BUT...
SURGING CHARACTER OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY UNDERCUT UPDRAFTS
MAKING LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
WRN OK/TX PNHDL BY MONDAY MORNING.

..RACY/GUYER.. 10/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.