[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291934
SWODY1
SPC AC 291932

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BLI 35 NNE PDX
40 NNW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ELP 65 NNW GUP
30 SW BCE 15 SE ELY 45 NNE ELY 15 NE DPG 15 WNW BPI JAC 20 SSE WEY
10 W BZN 45 SSE GTF 25 W GDV 30 ENE 2WX 50 ENE CDR 15 ESE VTN 35 NNE
HON 30 SSW AXN 10 NE MSP 45 E MCW 15 S DSM 60 NW SGF 15 ENE TUL 10
SE CHK 30 NNE BWD 25 WNW DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS ERN PAC NOW EXTENDING INTO WRN U.S. AS A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK S/WVS NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY ARE PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR GENERALLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


LEAD IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN HI PLAINS IS AIDING AREA OF
ELEVATED STORMS SRN TX PANHANDLE CURRENTLY IN THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN.  

UPSTREAM S/WV WITH WEAK VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN UT INTO SRN
WY/NWRN CO WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES WHERE AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE.

COLD FRONT FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO NWRN KS AND THEN WWD ACROSS E
CENTRAL CO. SURFACE LEE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SWD FROM COLD FRONT
KS/CO BORDER INTO NWRN NM.  

30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO E OF FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH.  WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY NEAR
50F AND AFTERNOON TEMPS LOW 70S...MLCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES COUPLED
WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM A FEW SURFACE BASED
STORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 21Z.  GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND ONLY ABOUT 30KT OF SHEAR...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO ISOLATED HAIL EVENTS.

..HALES.. 10/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.