[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291552
SWODY1
SPC AC 291550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BLI 35 NNE PDX
40 NNW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ELP 25 ENE GUP
65 SSW 4BL 45 N P38 20 SW ELY 55 SW ENV 30 SSE TWF 15 SW SUN 35 SW
SMN 35 N SMN 20 WSW LWT 25 W GDV 30 ENE 2WX 50 ENE CDR 15 ESE VTN 35
NNE HON 30 SSW AXN 10 NE MSP 45 E MCW 15 S DSM 60 NW SGF 30 N MKO 25
WNW ADM 30 NNE BWD 25 WNW DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC PORTENDS A TRANSITION TO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD BY
TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD FROM
THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS.  

...WRN KS TO TX PANHANDLE...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER NM/SRN CO AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE
PROGRESSES QUICKLY ESEWD OVER NV/UT/NRN AZ.  IN ADVANCE OF THE NM
WAVE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS HAS INDUCED A 30-40 KT
SSWLY LLJ FROM W TX INTO KS/NEB.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING
NWD ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN MAXIMIZED NEAR 850
MB /DEWPOINTS OF 8-9 C OVER W TX/.  THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES OF
200-400 J/KG OVER ERN NM/W TX.

EXPECT THE MID LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE EWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY AND KS/OK/NW TX TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.  ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE WEAK LEE CYCLONE IN
WRN KS SSWWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO THE NW TX PANHANDLE AS THE
SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM UT/AZ. SURFACE HEATING W OF
THE THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 45-50 F WILL
RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR...WHERE 
STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.