[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271944
SWODY1
SPC AC 271943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2005

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BLI 30 SSE OLM
20 NW SLE 45 SW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 40 NNE 6R6
15 N MAF 30 SW LBB 25 E LBB 70 NNW ABI 30 NW BWD 60 NW AUS 30 S BAZ
45 ESE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH SMALL UPPER LOW OVER TX
THE MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD. 
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH MID-LEVEL COOLING
ACROSS S TX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION -- AND A LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT -- ACROSS THIS REGION. 

...PARTS OF S TX...
NNWWD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF S TX COMBINED WITH SLOWLY COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE TRANSPECOS
REGION OF TX HAS YIELDED GENERALLY MODEST AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONGEST INSTABILITY /500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS LOCATED
ACROSS DEEP S TX/THE IMMEDIATE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA...INVOF WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY RESIDING ACROSS THIS REGION.  WITH LOW-LEVEL SELYS
BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL/WEAK
SUPERCELL STORMS EXISTS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO...ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL.

FURTHER NWWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...WEAKER INSTABILITY EXISTS
DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THOUGH SHEAR
ACROSS THIS REGION IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MID-LEVEL
ROTATION...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THOUGH STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS
FAR S TX AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING SEWD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY WANE WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION AFTER
SUNSET.

..GOSS.. 10/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.