[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251239
SWODY1
SPC AC 251238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 45 ESE OLM
15 S SLE 65 WSW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MER 35 NW TVL
45 SE BOI 25 SSE SUN 35 W RKS 35 ESE DRO 25 SSW GNT 20 S PRC 40 NNE
BLH 10 W NID 40 NNE MER.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E WAL DCA HGR 15
ESE PSB ELM 40 NW GFL 15 NW EPM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
STRONG UPPER LOW HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CA/NV BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED -16C TO -18C MID LEVEL
POCKET WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. 
THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE/DRY...CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUSTAIN WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN NV/NRN AZ/UT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MID LEVEL
COOLING...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.

...NORTHEAST...
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NWD NEAR FAR ERN MA LATER
TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM WINDS-UP...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW/WAA THROUGH
H85 WILL DEVELOP INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS MID LEVELS COOL
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THIS
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

...PAC NW COAST...
EXTENSIVE OPEN-CELL CU FIELD AND PERSISTENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANYING STRONG UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VERY COLD MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /I.E. H5
TEMPERATURES AOB -30C/.  STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING
AREA OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE -2C SFC-H7 LIFTED INDICES AND 250 J/KG MUCAPE
ALONG THE COAST AFTER 00-02Z...SUGGESTING SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER CORES.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 10/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.