[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250517
SWODY1
SPC AC 250515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E WAL DCA HGR 15
ESE PSB ELM 40 NW GFL 25 SE EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 40 ESE OLM
20 NNW EUG 65 WSW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIH U31 OWY 25 WSW
MLD GJT DRO GUP PRC EED 55 N NID BIH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE PLAINS. 
MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY...BEFORE
INTENSIFYING MID/UPPER JET STREAK...ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS
EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/JUST
EAST OF MID/NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

UPSTREAM...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN...WITH RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
AS DEEP NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH BROADENS...WITH STRONG EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PIVOTING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
STATES.  IN RESPONSE TO LATTER FEATURE...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EAST OF THE COLORADO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TUESDAY.

...NORTHEAST...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ALONG MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...WITH STRONG LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING
FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WHERE MID-LEVEL ASCENT BECOMES STRONGEST TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE.  

ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN DELMARVA INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK/LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS MID-LEVELS
STABILIZE...BUT NEW STORMS COULD FORM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF COASTAL MAINE.

...GREAT BASIN...
LOWER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REMAIN RELATIVELY
WARM...AND MID-LEVEL COOLING IN EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM JET
STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TODAY.  MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...AND
ONCE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED MOSTLY NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES...
MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL BAND WILL SWEEP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ITS
WAKE...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 26/06Z. FORCING IS THEN PROGGED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

..KERR.. 10/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.