[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251622
SWODY1
SPC AC 251621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE BIH 25 WSW U31
45 NNE OWY 35 SW PIH 35 SSW RKS 25 NW MTJ 40 NE DRO 45 N 4SL 25 W
GNT 10 ESE PRC 30 WNW EED 15 E NID 45 SSE BIH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JFK 20 W EWR
10 ENE MSV 25 SSE GFL 10 NNW LEB 35 NNE BML 30 N BGR 55 SSE BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW OMK 45 W EAT
EUG 60 NW 4BK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.  PHASING SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER DEEPEN UPR LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG...WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE PLNS.  FARTHER W... SATELLITE AND
LTNG DATA SHOW LARGE AREA OF SCTD THUNDER CONTINUING WITH SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE ROUNDING BASE OF DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC.  THE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS WRN WA/ORE TONIGHT AS DOWNSTREAM
SYSTEM NOW NEARING LAS CONTINUES ESE INTO NRN AZ/NM.

..SRN GRT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF 70 KT WLY JET STREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CA UPR IMPULSE WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE SRN GRT
BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND EWD MOTION OF MID LEVEL COLD POCKET /500 TEMPS TO
-19C/...EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER NOW NEAR LAS WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP E THROUGH THE DAY.

THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED MOISTENING AT MID
LEVELS MAY ENHANCE STORM DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS EXTREME SRN NV/NRN AZ AND
SRN/CNTRL UT THROUGH THIS EVENING.  SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
SOME CELLS.

...PAC NW...
STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NE ACROSS WRN WA AND ORE EARLY TONIGHT.  FRONTAL
BAND APPEARS TO BE DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ATTM...BUT ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY FRONT THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
POSSIBLE TIGHTENING OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION...AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.  FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY AS DEEP...CYCLONIC WSWLY FETCH WILL MAXIMIZE OROGRAPHIC
UPLIFT.  WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND -28C
AND SFC-H7 LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -2C AFTER 03Z...EXPECT THAT
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL... ESPECIALLY IN THE
PUGET SOUND AREA.

...ERN NY/NEW ENG...
850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ERN NY INTO CNTRL NEW
ENG LATER TODAY AS UPR SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER REGION.  MORNING RAOB AND
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 LAYER WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
WELL OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TRANSITIONING T.C. WILMA. 
WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL COOLING MAY...
HOWEVER...SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER PARTS OF
NEW ENG THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.