[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250031
SWODY1
SPC AC 250030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2005

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE EWN 15 NW ECG
RIC 45 SSW MRB 20 SSW AOO 40 SW ELM ALB 70 ESE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S NFL 40 W TPH 15
NE DRA 40 NNE DAG 25 S NID 30 ESE BFL 35 E MER 30 SSW TVL 45 NW TVL
35 SSE SVE 20 NE RNO 40 S NFL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA SUPPORT MODEL PROGS WHICH CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER...
FROM MARYLAND/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AFTER
03-06Z...WITH INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT.  CAPE FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION AT OR
ABOVE 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...WHICH...GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...SIERRA NEVADA...
DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS SUPPORTING ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA...SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE.
 AS HIGH-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST/
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG SIERRA NEVADA...BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..KERR.. 10/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.