[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240518
SWODY1
SPC AC 240516

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E
EYW 35 NW MIA 15 SE AGR 40 NE MLB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
EYW 60 SSE FMY 25 WSW AGR 50 ESE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W CTY 35 E SSI
...CONT... 35 SE CRE 15 NE EWN 55 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW U31 25 N DRA 35
ENE LAS 20 NNE IGM 30 S IGM 25 SW EED 30 ESE BFL 15 W FAT 35 ESE SAC
65 W RNO 20 N RNO 10 NNE NFL 50 SW U31.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ELP 25 S CNM
30 W SJT 25 SSE JCT 15 W HDO 55 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PEN....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL/ERN PEN....

AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS
ONGOING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
MODELS SUGGEST TROUGH WILL SHARPEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE WILMA INTO
AND THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION...
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S...WILL SURGE INTO THIS REGION EARLY TODAY...AND CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
EARLY EVENING. MODELS VARY CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.

IN THE WEST...MODELS INDICATE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL
BECOME SHEARED AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
...INTO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE COLORADO
VALLEY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

...FLORIDA...
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ASSOCIATED WITH LAND FALLING
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 12-15Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS.  IN TROPICAL BOUNDARY
LAYER EAST/NORTHEAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THIS THREAT.  GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR...BEFORE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AS
WILMA LIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MID DAY.

...TEXAS...
MODELS SUGGEST ENHANCED LIFT/DESTABILIZATION NEAR MID-LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA...THROUGH MID DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

...CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
LIFT/DESTABILIZATION IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK
HEATING.

..KERR/BANACOS.. 10/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.