[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240047
SWODY1
SPC AC 240045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
SRQ 30 ENE MLB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
PIE 55 ESE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 40 SE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SOW 60 WNW SAD
20 ENE PHX 35 S IGM 35 SSW GCN 25 NE GCN 60 SSE PGA 60 NNE INW 55
NNE SOW 45 ENE SOW 40 SE SOW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 WSW INK
40 NNW HOB 25 SE CVS 60 ESE LBB 25 NW BWD 40 ESE SJT 10 WNW SAT 15
SW LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF CNTRL/SRN FL....

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF A TAMPA/MELBOURNE LINE.  THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE HAS
PROVIDE MAIN FORCING/FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN TROPICAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS AMPLIFICATION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
CONTINUES TONIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE WILMA INTO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS WILL OCCUR BY 12Z MONDAY.  AS OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS EVENING...AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM...TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EVIDENT
IN LATEST SOUNDINGS...THIS RISK APPEARS RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL. 
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
EXISTS...PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT IN OUTER BANDS EAST/NORTHEAST OF
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM...IN THE
VICINITY OF WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW.  UPPER FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING... 
AND...IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING...LINGERING
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.

...TEXAS...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT NEAR/
JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
CAPE IS GENERALLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR LESS
FOR PARCELS REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION AROUND 700 MB... SO
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEAK.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SPORADIC
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

..KERR.. 10/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.