[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231625
SWODY1
SPC AC 231624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
PIE 55 ESE DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 40 SE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DMN 45 N SAD 40
SW PRC 35 ESE IGM 60 NE IGM 55 ESE SGU 20 SSE PGA 20 WSW ABQ 40 NNE
ROW 45 NE BGS 30 SSE ABI 35 SSW BWD 20 NW HDO 50 NW LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS POTENT MID MS
VLY UPR LOW AMPLIFIES E/SE INTO THE OH VLY DOWNSTREAM FROM
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN.  HURRICANE WILMA APPEARS TO
BE HEADING NEWD ATTM AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
AS SYSTEM IS OVERTAKEN BY INCREASING UPR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING ERN STATES TROUGH.

AT LWR LEVELS...LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH EXTENDS
WSW/ENE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FROM N OF TPA TO NEAR ORL.  NLY
SURFACE WINDS N OF BNDRY SUGGEST CONTINUED SLOW SWD DRIFT TODAY. 
THE FEATURE SHOULD...HOWEVER...BECOME STATIONARY BY TONIGHT AS DEEP
FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM WILMA.

...S FL...
LEAD CONFLUENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA SHOULD REACH THE WRN KEYS
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SW FL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING.  COINCIDENT INCREASE IN LOW-LVL SHEAR STRENGTH/ HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE...COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR
70S/...WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD E ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA
ACCELERATES NEWD.

...CNTRL FL...
DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVER
CNTRL FL MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.  BOTH LOW AND
DEEP SHEAR ALONG BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MODEST UNTIL THIS EVENING
...WHEN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION. IN ADDITION...
BOUNDARY ORIENTATION IS SUCH THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM LIKELY WILL
MOVE FROM WARM TO COOL SIDE FAIRLY RAPIDLY.  THUS...ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY NON-SEVERE TODAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PWS /2+ INCHES/ MAY
YIELD A WET MICROBURST OR TWO. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ARRIVAL OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WILMA.  INTERACTIONS CONDUCIVE TO
LOW LVL STORM ROTATION MAY ALSO OCCUR BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY AND
WILMA/S OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS.

...SWRN U.S. INTO S CNTRL TX...
WEAK UPR LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SRN GRT
BASIN THIS PERIOD...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DIURNALLY
ENHANCED TSTMS IN NRN AZ.

FARTHER E...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOIST LAYER OVER SW AND S CNTRL TX
WILL BE LIFTED BY /1/ SHALLOW COLD FRONT SURGING SSW ACROSS REGION
AND /2/ WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO SRN STREAM.  THIS MAY RESULT IN 
ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MTNS OF SW TX AND PERHAPS SRN NM LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVER S CNTRL TX...EXPECT BULK OF STORMS NOW PRESENT E OF THE BIG
BEND WILL SETTLE S OF THE RIO GRANDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  DEGREE
OF ELEVATED CAPE /AOB 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO
POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.